Red vs. Blue

U.S. economic metrics under Democratic vs. Republican presidents

Reproducible permutation-based inference across … U.S. economic metrics

Metrics sorted by BH-FDR corrected q-value.
Confirmatory (q<0.05) Supportive (q<0.10) Exploratory
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Metric Family Agg Units D mean R mean D-R n(D) n(R) p p evaluates one metric without correcting for the other tests. Use it when the metric was chosen in advance, independently of these results. q q adjusts for testing all metrics shown using Benjamini–Hochberg FDR. Use it when scanning, comparing, or selecting metrics from this table. Evidence colors and labels use q. CI 95%

Methodology: unrestricted permutation test (10,000 shuffles) with Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction across all metrics in a single universe. Bootstrap 95% CIs (2,000 resamples). See --term-block-years for block-shuffle sensitivity analysis.

Price-index source: inspect the monthly S&P CSV and license.

For full details see: github.com/wakamex/redvsblue